Net Zero Emissions and Global Carbon Budget

THE CONCEPT OF NET ZERO 

• UNFCCC - Prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
• Paris Agreement – Balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks , in the second half of the century

WHAT ACTIONS DOES NET ZERO ENTAIL?

• Mitigation of emissions – Energy , Transportation, Industry etc
• Absorption by Sinks – Forests ; Oceans 
• Removals through Direct Air Capture ; CCUS

Objective : To prevent net addition to the stock of GHGs, beyond the global carbon budget 

GLOBAL CLIMATE TREATIES 

• UNFCCC (1992)
• Kyoto Protocol (1997)
• Paris Agreement (2015)

Gradual shift from emission reduction targets only for developed countries , towards nationally determined , binding targets for all countries . 

IPCC : CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS 
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is the most comprehensive scientific assessment of climate change, its impacts, and future risks, as well as options for adaptation and mitigation.
The latest synthesis report (2023) highlights several critical points:

• Unequivocal Warming: Human activities (primarily greenhouse gas emissions) have unequivocally caused global warming, with the global surface temperature already reaching approximately 1.1C above pre-industrial levels.
• Widespread Impacts: Climate change is already causing widespread adverse impacts and losses and damages globally, intensifying weather and climate extremes in every region.
• Urgent Action Needed: The world is likely to exceed the 6C warming limit in the near term (early 2030s) under current trends and policies.7 Every increment of warming escalates risks.
• Solutions Exist: There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity. Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors are essential to secure a livable future and keep the 10C goal within reach. This requires emissions to be cut by at least 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
• Climate Resilient Development: Solutions lie in climate resilient development, which integrates actions to adapt to climate change with measures to reduce emissions, prioritizing equity, social justice, and a just transition.
• Financial Gap: Current global financial flows for adaptation and mitigation are insufficient, especially in developing countries, despite there being enough global capital to close the investment gaps.

Why Neutrality?

• Considering the huge climate change impacts as a result of cumulative emissions, it is important to sequester as much carbon as emitted.
• Since climate change is global collective action problem, the response also needs to be global but based on equity and CBDR-RC.

Carbon budget

• Cumulative amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions permitted over a period of time to keep within a certain temperature. 
• Amount left is 500 GtCO2 for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees and 1350 GtCO2 for 2 degrees.

50% Probability of 1.5 deg. C

50% Probability of 2 deg. C

But emissions are continually rising

Net-Zero Targets highly inadequate

INDIA : FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE ACTIONS

India's climate action framework is primarily guided by its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and its long-standing National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC).1
The framework balances the goals of rapid economic development and poverty eradication with ambitious climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, following the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities."
Key Pillars of India's Climate Action Framework
1. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) & Net-Zero Target
India's primary global commitments (updated in 2022) are:

• Non-Fossil Fuel Capacity: Achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030.
• Renewable Energy Share: Meet 50% of its energy requirements from renewable sources by 2030.
• Emissions Reduction: Reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030.
• Carbon Emissions: Reduce total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes from now until 2030.
• Net-Zero Target: Achieve Net-Zero emissions by 2070.

2. National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)
Launched in 2008, the NAPCC is the overarching policy framework. It is built around eight core National Missions focused on both mitigation and adaptation:

3. Other Major Initiatives
India has rolled out several large-scale initiatives to support its climate goals:

• International Solar Alliance (ISA): A global treaty-based organization co-founded by India, focused on the massive deployment of solar energy.
• Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) Movement: A global initiative spearheaded by India to promote an environmentally conscious lifestyle and sustainable consumption.
• Green Hydrogen Mission: A strategic push to become a global hub for the production, use, and export of Green Hydrogen.
• PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: A flagship scheme to boost rooftop solar installations for households, providing free electricity up to a certain limit.
• Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS): Regulations have been adopted to establish a national compliance carbon market by mid-2026.